Aircraft Icing Algorithms Applied to U. S. Navy Numerical Model Data: A Verification Study.

The results from a verification with pilot reports of four aircraft icing algorithms applied to Navy global numerical model data are presented. Significant differences in forecast performance among algorithms are closely related to differences in temperature and moisture thresholds utilized to infer...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Vogel, G. N.
Other Authors: NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA DECISION AID SECTION
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1997
Subjects:
Military Aircraft Operations
Snow
Ice and Permafrost
Statistics and Probability
*MATHEMATICAL MODELS
*ALGORITHMS
*STATISTICAL TESTS
*NAVAL RESEARCH
*AVIATION SAFETY
*ICE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURE
STABILITY
COMPUTATIONS
AIRCRAFT
SKILLS
VERIFICATION
PREDICTIONS
PILOTS
RESOLUTION
INTENSITY
EFFICIENCY
FALSE ALARMS
ICE FORMATION
AERONAUTICS
GUIDANCE
MOISTURE
SCORING
LEAD TIME
ICE REPORTING
NOGAPS(NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM)
PE63207N
WUDN153164
Hanssen
Kuipers
Ice
permafrost
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA324028
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA324028
Description
Summary:The results from a verification with pilot reports of four aircraft icing algorithms applied to Navy global numerical model data are presented. Significant differences in forecast performance among algorithms are closely related to differences in temperature and moisture thresholds utilized to infer icing. Near 850 mb (-5000 ft), three of the icing routines correctly forecast over 70% of observed icing occurrences, and obtained Hanssen and Kuipers skill scores (difference between hits and false alarms) in excess of 0.5 (0, random performance; I, perfect skill). Statistical tests indicated that differences in skill scores as a function of forecast lead time (0 to 24 hr) were generally not significant. The use of higher vertical resolution data was found very important for enhanced icing prediction performance. Overall results indicate that the ability of icing routines to differentiate icing type and intensity based on temperature, moisture and stability criteria is clearly limited. In terms of forecast skill and computational efficiency, algorithm comparisons indicate that the icing routine currently used as operational guidance at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Weather Center would be a good selection for the Naval Research Laboratory's aviation support product suite.

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