Development and Results of a Northern Sea Route Transit Model

• Main Authors: Mulherin, Nathan D., Eppler, Duane T., Proshutinsky, Tatiana O., Farmer, L. D., Smith, Orson P.
• Other Authors: COLD REGIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING LAB HANOVER NH
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1996
• Subjects: Marine Engineering; *MARINE TRANSPORTATION; *SHIPPING; DATA BASES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; ALGORITHMS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS; SHIP MOTION; COST ESTIMATES; INPUT OUTPUT PROCESSING; MONTE CARLO METHOD; COST MODELS; WATER TRAFFIC; OCEAN MODELS; OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS; DAILY OCCURRENCE; CARGO HANDLING; SEA ICE; CARGO SHIPS; ICEBREAKERS; TANKER SHIPS; ARCTIC OCEAN; TRANSPORT SHIPS; ESCORT SHIPS; BERING STRAIT; Arctic; Arctic Ocean; Bering Strait; Northern Sea Route; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA311979; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA311979

For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the model, probability distributions for various ice, ocean and atmospheric inputs are exercised by a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate combinations of conditions that affect ship speed. The speed, dependent on the established environment during each time and distance segment, is read from empirically derived lookup tables. Daily ship rates and Russian passage fees were applied to calculate the relative total costs for moving the various cargoes over the route. The model's development, limiting assumptions, simulation logic, data inputs, and resulting output are discussed.