Development and Results of a Northern Sea Route Transit Model

For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mulherin, Nathan D., Eppler, Duane T., Proshutinsky, Tatiana O., Farmer, L. D., Smith, Orson P.
Other Authors: COLD REGIONS RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING LAB HANOVER NH
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1996
Subjects:
Marine Engineering
*MARINE TRANSPORTATION
*SHIPPING
DATA BASES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
ALGORITHMS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
SHIP MOTION
COST ESTIMATES
INPUT OUTPUT PROCESSING
MONTE CARLO METHOD
COST MODELS
WATER TRAFFIC
OCEAN MODELS
OCEAN ENVIRONMENTS
DAILY OCCURRENCE
CARGO HANDLING
SEA ICE
CARGO SHIPS
ICEBREAKERS
TANKER SHIPS
ARCTIC OCEAN
TRANSPORT SHIPS
ESCORT SHIPS
BERING STRAIT
Arctic
Arctic Ocean
Bering Strait
Northern Sea Route
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA311979
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA311979
Description
Summary:For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the model, probability distributions for various ice, ocean and atmospheric inputs are exercised by a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate combinations of conditions that affect ship speed. The speed, dependent on the established environment during each time and distance segment, is read from empirically derived lookup tables. Daily ship rates and Russian passage fees were applied to calculate the relative total costs for moving the various cargoes over the route. The model's development, limiting assumptions, simulation logic, data inputs, and resulting output are discussed.

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