The Effect of Software Size Uncertainty on Effort Estimates Generalized by Alpha Times I to the Beta Power Software Resource Models.

In support of the Cost Technical Center's estimate of the North Atlantic Defense System (NADS) software development effort, a new probability model, the Analytic Software Effort Probability (ASEP) model, has been developed that quantifies the impact of software size uncertainty on effort estima...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Garvey, Paul R
Other Authors: MITRE CORP BEDFORD MA
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1987
Subjects:
Computer Programming and Software
*COMPUTER PROGRAMS
COST ESTIMATES
DISTRIBUTION
EQUATIONS
IMPACT
MATHEMATICS
MODELS
PROBABILITY
SIZES(DIMENSIONS)
VARIATIONS
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NADS(North Atlantic Defense System)
ASEP(Analytic Software Effort Probability)
LPN-Mitre-443C
Mitre
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA189209
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA189209
Description
Summary:In support of the Cost Technical Center's estimate of the North Atlantic Defense System (NADS) software development effort, a new probability model, the Analytic Software Effort Probability (ASEP) model, has been developed that quantifies the impact of software size uncertainty on effort estimates generated by Alpha I Beta software resource models. This paper provides the mathematical foundation of the ASEP model. Analytic equations that yield the exact density, cumulative distribution, mean, and variance of the development effort, given that the size of a single Computer Software Configuration Item(CSCI) is a uniform or triangularly distributed random variable, are described. These equations are extended to the case of approximating the overall development effort mean, variance, and distribution for a system consisting of multiple CSCIs.

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