Relating the Distributional Character of Numerical Model Output Parameters to the Occurrence of Fog Over the North Atlantic Ocean.

This report describes an investigation into the statistical distributional of six model output parameters from Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Center's Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, as a function of the occurrence of Fog and No Fog for a climatologically-homogeneous area...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Muldoon,Oliver J
Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1986
Subjects:
Atmospheric Physics
Statistics and Probability
*WEATHER
*FOG
*ATMOSPHERE MODELS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OUTPUT
THREATS
DISTRIBUTION
PARAMETERS
PROBABILITY
NUMERICAL ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
ACCURACY
THESES
FALSE ALARMS
RELIABILITY
MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
BAYES THEOREM
MARINE METEOROLOGY
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCORING
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Beta distribution
Gamma distribution
Predictors
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA174543
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA174543
Description
Summary:This report describes an investigation into the statistical distributional of six model output parameters from Fleet Numerical Oceanographic Center's Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, as a function of the occurrence of Fog and No Fog for a climatologically-homogeneous area of the North Atlantic Ocean in the summer season. Beta, Normal and Gamma distributions were fitted to these parameters and forecasts of Fog and No Fog were made using Baye's Law. Intercomparisons were made of these forecasts, using various categorical scoring systems (Threat Score, Percentage Correct, False Alarm, Forecast Reliability and Power of Detection), as well as a probabilistic scoring system (Penalty-Reward Score). The forecast results were examined for significant differences using an Anova analysis. It is confirmed that predictor whose distributions are roughly bell-shaped, it is indicated that the Beta distribution can be generally used as a proxy for the Normal, as can the Gamma also. However, in some cases the Normal distribution results in better forecast scores, and the decision on use of a proxy would depend on which of the scores is to be emphasized.

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