Evaluation of a Method for Short-Range Forecasting of Evaporation Duct Heights.

• Main Author: SWEET,Wayne A
• Other Authors: NAVAL ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION RESEARCH FACILITY MONTEREY CA
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1981
• Subjects: Meteorology; Statistics and Probability; *WEATHER FORECASTING; OCEAN SURFACE; TIME DEPENDENCE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE; METEOROLOGICAL DATA; SHORT RANGE(TIME); TRANSFORMATIONS(MATHEMATICS); DUCTS; WIND VELOCITY; EVAPORATION; WEATHER STATIONS; MARINE METEOROLOGY; NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN; HEIGHT; MARKOV PROCESSES; DEW POINT; Ocean weather stations; Evaporation ducts; PE62759N; WU6211; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA104892; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA104892

A method for forecasting evaporation duct heights over periods of three to twelve hours is evaluated by comprising skill and threat scores to persistance scores. Although the evaluation of data from two ocean weather stations in the North Atlantic reveals an apparent advantage of the forecast method over persistance, an analysis of variance shows no statistically significant differences between the two sets of scores. (Author)