A Technique for Using Synoptic Analogs to Predict the Development of Tropical Depressions into North Atlantic Hurricanes.

This study presents a method for using the output of the U.S. Navy long range (analog) forecast model to predict the development of tropical depressions in the North Atlantic Ocean into tropical storms or hurricanes. The technique is applied to North Atlantic tropical depressions which formed in the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Grimm,David Alan
Other Authors: AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OHIO
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1978
Subjects:
Meteorology
*WEATHER FORECASTING
*HURRICANES
INTENSITY
THESES
ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES
LOW PRESSURE
METEOROLOGICAL DATA
LONG RANGE(TIME)
MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
STORMS
ANALOGS
TROPICAL REGIONS
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY
HURRICANE TRACKING
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA065476
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA065476
Description
Summary:This study presents a method for using the output of the U.S. Navy long range (analog) forecast model to predict the development of tropical depressions in the North Atlantic Ocean into tropical storms or hurricanes. The technique is applied to North Atlantic tropical depressions which formed in the period from 1974 through 1977. Sample cases, statistical analyses of results, and verification of the technique are presented. Results show that the method successfully predicts tropical depression development. Recommendations are made to streamline and improve the technique. (Author)

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