Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change: A Review of Problems and Prospects

• Main Author: Gates,W. Lawrence
• Other Authors: RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1975
• Subjects: Atmospheric Physics; Meteorology; Statistics and Probability; *CLIMATE; *ATMOSPHERE MODELS; TEMPERATURE; GLOBAL; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC MOTION; FINITE DIFFERENCE THEORY; OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA; SEASONAL VARIATIONS; VERTICAL ORIENTATION; DEFICIENCIES; THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES; HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES; STATISTICAL PROCESSES; CONVECTION(HEAT TRANSFER); ENERGY LEVELS; OCEAN MODELS; SEA LEVEL; CLOUD COVER; EDDY CURRENTS; SEA ICE; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CONVECTION(ATMOSPHERIC); BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW; LAND ICE; TERRAIN MODELS; *Climatic change; Climate models; Energy balance; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA022266; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA022266

The atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric elements of the global climatic system are briefly considered, and along with the principal characteristics of climatic change. The development of numerical general circulation models of statistical-dynamical models is reviewed from the point of view of their inherent limitations for the simulation of climatic change. The performance of selected atmospheric models is summarized in terms of their simulation of the zonally-averaged January sea-level pressure and precipitation rate; the differences among the models' results are large, particularly in the lower latitudes, and the model's errors compared with observation bear no clear relationship to the number of models levels. The further improvement of such models appears to rest with the introduction of more adequate parameterizations for convection and the surface boundary layer, and perhaps most importantly for climatic simulations, with the coupling of interactive models of the ocean, ice sheets and land surface character. The future of climate modeling is seen to involve the use of a hierarchy of models of various degrees of resolution. Special attention must be given to the trade-offs between the conventional global circulation models and a variety of statistical-dynamical models.