Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change: A Review of Problems and Prospects

The atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric elements of the global climatic system are briefly considered, and along with the principal characteristics of climatic change. The development of numerical general circulation models of statistical-dynamical models is reviewed from the point of view of their...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Gates,W. Lawrence
Other Authors: RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CALIF
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1975
Subjects:
Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology
Statistics and Probability
*CLIMATE
*ATMOSPHERE MODELS
TEMPERATURE
GLOBAL
ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
ATMOSPHERIC MOTION
FINITE DIFFERENCE THEORY
OCEANOGRAPHIC DATA
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
VERTICAL ORIENTATION
DEFICIENCIES
THERMODYNAMIC CYCLES
HORIZONTAL ORIENTATION
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES
STATISTICAL PROCESSES
CONVECTION(HEAT TRANSFER)
ENERGY LEVELS
OCEAN MODELS
SEA LEVEL
CLOUD COVER
EDDY CURRENTS
SEA ICE
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
CONVECTION(ATMOSPHERIC)
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
LAND ICE
TERRAIN MODELS
*Climatic change
Climate models
Energy balance
Sea ice
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA022266
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA022266
Description
Summary:The atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric elements of the global climatic system are briefly considered, and along with the principal characteristics of climatic change. The development of numerical general circulation models of statistical-dynamical models is reviewed from the point of view of their inherent limitations for the simulation of climatic change. The performance of selected atmospheric models is summarized in terms of their simulation of the zonally-averaged January sea-level pressure and precipitation rate; the differences among the models' results are large, particularly in the lower latitudes, and the model's errors compared with observation bear no clear relationship to the number of models levels. The further improvement of such models appears to rest with the introduction of more adequate parameterizations for convection and the surface boundary layer, and perhaps most importantly for climatic simulations, with the coupling of interactive models of the ocean, ice sheets and land surface character. The future of climate modeling is seen to involve the use of a hierarchy of models of various degrees of resolution. Special attention must be given to the trade-offs between the conventional global circulation models and a variety of statistical-dynamical models.

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