Further Verifications of and Experiments to Improve the Modified Hatrack Scheme for Forecasting the Motion of Tropical Cyclones.

• Main Author: Colgan,Stephen Gregory
• Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 1971
• Subjects: Meteorology; *WEATHER FORECASTING; MOTION; TROPICAL CYCLONES; MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION; WIND; ATLANTIC OCEAN; STATISTICAL DATA; COMPUTER PROGRAMMING; THESES; FORTRAN; FORTRAN 4 PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE; GEOSTROPHIC WIND; HURRICANES; TYPHOONS; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD0734985; http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=AD0734985

The MODIFIED HATRACK(MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. (Author)