Further Verifications of and Experiments to Improve the Modified Hatrack Scheme for Forecasting the Motion of Tropical Cyclones.

The MODIFIED HATRACK(MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Colgan,Stephen Gregory
Other Authors: NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CALIF
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 1971
Subjects:
Meteorology
*WEATHER FORECASTING
MOTION
TROPICAL CYCLONES
MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION
WIND
ATLANTIC OCEAN
STATISTICAL DATA
COMPUTER PROGRAMMING
THESES
FORTRAN
FORTRAN 4 PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE
GEOSTROPHIC WIND
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
North Atlantic
Online Access:http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD0734985
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=AD0734985
Description
Summary:The MODIFIED HATRACK(MODHATR) scheme for forecasting tropical cyclone motion consists of a numerical steering component using geostrophic winds derived from Fleet Numerical Weather Central's SR height field to steer the storm center, and a statistical modification component to correct for bias and improve forecast accuracy. MODHATR forecasts from the 1969 and 1970 North Atlantic hurricane seasons are analyzed, and average errors presented and compared to earlier years' results. MODHATR forecasts are shown to be superior on the average to OFFICIAL forecasts, NHC-67, and TYRACK forecast schemes for forecast intervals to 48 hours, with relative accuracy of MODHATR decreasing with time. (Author)

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