Evaluation of models for multi-step forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease using multi-input multi-output: A case study of Chengdu, China.

Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. How...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Main Authors: Xiaoran Geng, Yue Ma, Wennian Cai, Yuanyi Zha, Tao Zhang, Huadong Zhang, Changhong Yang, Fei Yin, Tiejun Shui
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2023
Subjects:
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011587
https://doaj.org/article/f5c2acd846294d868acb1451fbe9f881
Description
Summary:Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health concern that threatens the health of children. Accurately forecasting of HFMD cases multiple days ahead and early detection of peaks in the number of cases followed by timely response are essential for HFMD prevention and control. However, many studies mainly predict future one-day incidence, which reduces the flexibility of prevention and control. Methods We collected the daily number of HFMD cases among children aged 0-14 years in Chengdu from 2011 to 2017, as well as meteorological and air pollutant data for the same period. The LSTM, Seq2Seq, Seq2Seq-Luong and Seq2Seq-Shih models were used to perform multi-step prediction of HFMD through multi-input multi-output. We evaluated the models in terms of overall prediction performance, the time delay and intensity of detection peaks. Results From 2011 to 2017, HFMD in Chengdu showed seasonal trends that were consistent with temperature, air pressure, rainfall, relative humidity, and PM10. The Seq2Seq-Shih model achieved the best performance, with RMSE, sMAPE and PCC values of 13.943~22.192, 17.880~27.937, and 0.887~0.705 for the 2-day to 15-day predictions, respectively. Meanwhile, the Seq2Seq-Shih model is able to detect peaks in the next 15 days with a smaller time delay. Conclusions The deep learning Seq2Seq-Shih model achieves the best performance in overall and peak prediction, and is applicable to HFMD multi-step prediction based on environmental factors.

Similar Items