The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.

BACKGROUND:Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY:We created y...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Main Authors: Arvind Yerramilli, Ee Laine Tay, Andrew J Stewardson, Janet Fyfe, Daniel P O'Brien, Paul D R Johnson
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2018
Subjects:
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757
https://doaj.org/article/f3884606f37f4c2fa0bf6d4c2211d8bb
Description
Summary:BACKGROUND:Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas. METHODOLOGY:We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation. CONCLUSIONS:Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.

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