Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, <math display="inline">&l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Main Authors: Alicia Takbash, Ian R. Young
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2020
Subjects:
extreme wave height
extreme value analysis
wave climate
wave model
reanalysis
Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
VM1-989
Oceanography
GC1-1581
Southern Ocean
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8121015
https://doaj.org/article/ee200b3fcf3343a9abd12b1db0acf863
Description
Summary:A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, <math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msubsup><mi>H</mi><mi>s</mi><mrow><mn>100</mn></mrow></msubsup></mrow></semantics></math> . The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of <math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msubsup><mi>H</mi><mi>s</mi><mrow><mn>100</mn></mrow></msubsup></mrow></semantics></math> over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in <math display="inline"><semantics><mrow><msubsup><mi>H</mi><mi>s</mi><mrow><mn>100</mn></mrow></msubsup></mrow></semantics></math> in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

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