Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:ec86874846924b3d80adf7aeddf35938 2023-09-05T13:12:25+02:00 Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Alexander Nauels Joeri Rogelj Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Malte Meinshausen Matthias Mengel 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 https://doaj.org/article/ec86874846924b3d80adf7aeddf35938 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ec86874846924b3d80adf7aeddf35938 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 11, p 114002 (2017) sea level rise Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate change climate impacts climate mitigation climate scenarios Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 2023-08-13T00:37:31Z In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm ^−2 , 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm ^−2 , 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm ^−2 , and 91 cm (61–132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm ^−2 . Average 2081–2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr ^−1 and 19 mm yr ^−1 for FT 2.6 Wm ^−2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO _2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US$2005 tCO _2 ^−1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Environmental Research Letters 12 11 114002 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea level rise Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate change climate impacts climate mitigation climate scenarios Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
sea level rise Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate change climate impacts climate mitigation climate scenarios Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Alexander Nauels Joeri Rogelj Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Malte Meinshausen Matthias Mengel Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
topic_facet |
sea level rise Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate change climate impacts climate mitigation climate scenarios Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm ^−2 , 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm ^−2 , 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm ^−2 , and 91 cm (61–132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm ^−2 . Average 2081–2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr ^−1 and 19 mm yr ^−1 for FT 2.6 Wm ^−2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO _2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US$2005 tCO _2 ^−1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Alexander Nauels Joeri Rogelj Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Malte Meinshausen Matthias Mengel |
author_facet |
Alexander Nauels Joeri Rogelj Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Malte Meinshausen Matthias Mengel |
author_sort |
Alexander Nauels |
title |
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
title_short |
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
title_full |
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
title_fullStr |
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
title_full_unstemmed |
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways |
title_sort |
linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the shared socioeconomic pathways |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 https://doaj.org/article/ec86874846924b3d80adf7aeddf35938 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 11, p 114002 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/ec86874846924b3d80adf7aeddf35938 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
114002 |
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1776200263705559040 |