Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Abstract Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recen...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Main Authors: Yong-Cheol Jeong, Sang-Wook Yeh, Young-Kwon Lim, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2022
Subjects:
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
Arctic
Indian
Pacific
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00279-x
https://doaj.org/article/e6eb883a25764e3ca2edf2d772840a5e
Description
Summary:Abstract Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Similar Items