On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040

Abstract Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self‐reinforcing and non‐linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth's Future
Main Authors: Wake Smith, Madeline F. Bartels, Jasper G. Boers, Christian V. Rice
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
solar geoengineering
stratospheric aerosol injection
tipping points
climate emergencies
deployment infrastructure
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Ecology
QH540-549.5
Antarctic
Arctic
Antarc*
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004797
https://doaj.org/article/e2431ed91618471581fc82dae0b08a32
Description
Summary:Abstract Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self‐reinforcing and non‐linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

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