Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus . The precise determination of potential suitable areas of M. alternatus is essential to monitor, prevent, and control M. altern...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Insects
Main Authors: Ruihe Gao, Lei Liu, Lijuan Zhao, Shaopeng Cui
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2023
Subjects:
Monochamus alternatus
Bursaphelenchus xylophilus
MaxEnt
climate change
Science
Q
Antarc*
Antarctica
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14020182
https://doaj.org/article/dec0ef2d055a4f4d9188014314347046
Description
Summary:M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus . The precise determination of potential suitable areas of M. alternatus is essential to monitor, prevent, and control M. alternatus worldwide. According to the distribution points and climatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus worldwide. The optimized MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = LQHP and β = 1.5, which were determined by the values of AUC diff , OR 10 , and ΔAICc. Bio2, Bio6, Bio10, Bio12, and Bio14 were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. alternatus . Under the current climate conditions, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus were distributed across all continents except Antarctica, accounting for 4.17% of the Earth’s total land area. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus increased significantly, spreading to a global scale. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis of the global distribution and dispersal of M. alternatus as well as the precise monitoring and prevention of this beetle.

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