Solar Forcing of ENSO on Century Timescales

Abstract Understanding how El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) responds to natural variability is of key importance for future climate projections under a warming climate. However, there is no clear consensus on what drives ENSO's variability on centennial timescales. Here, we find that the epi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Paul S. Wilcox, Manfred Mudelsee, Christoph Spötl, R. Lawrence Edwards
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
ENSO
North Pacific
speleothems
anthropocene
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Pacific
aleutian low
Alaska
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105201
https://doaj.org/article/d23b71aa6c9a4db9a0d4e763a9f2f4b0
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Summary:Abstract Understanding how El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) responds to natural variability is of key importance for future climate projections under a warming climate. However, there is no clear consensus on what drives ENSO's variability on centennial timescales. Here, we find that the epikarst in southeastern Alaska is effective at filtering ENSO and solar irradiance signals from the Aleutian Low regional climate, which are subsequently recorded in speleothem proxy data. By applying a correlation test, we find that ENSO was significantly influenced by solar irradiance over the past ∼3,500 years. This relationship dissolved after ∼1970 CE, with ENSO now being dominated by anthropogenic forcing. This implies a new ENSO mean state that will need to be incorporated into future climate projections.

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