An integrated index of recent pan-Arctic climate change

We investigate climatic changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period 1982–2017 through examination of ten observational cryospheric time series, and develop a new quantitative composite Arctic climate change index (ACCI). Using Factor Analysis highlights joint trends of winter temperatur...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: James E Overland, Muyin Wang, Jason E Box
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2019
Subjects:
arctic change
environmental indicators
cryosphere
global warming
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
Arctic
Greenland
Climate change
Global warming
Sea ice
Tundra
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf665
https://doaj.org/article/cd3b5873a4b2457cab91aee10095eb7c
Description
Summary:We investigate climatic changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period 1982–2017 through examination of ten observational cryospheric time series, and develop a new quantitative composite Arctic climate change index (ACCI). Using Factor Analysis highlights joint trends of winter temperature increases and sea ice loss, tundra shifts, and secondarily summer sea ice loss, spring snow loss, and Greenland land ice loss. An Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation index (Arctic Oscillation) was not selected as a joint contributor. Distinct Arctic change began in 1990 and the trend increases after 2005 to the end of the series. That most variables of the collection project onto a single pattern of change suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis. A composite quantitative index (ACCI) is useful to document the covariability of systematic Arctic change.

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