Winds and Meltwater Together Lead to Southern Ocean Surface Cooling and Sea Ice Expansion

Abstract Southern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015 have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's grounded ice and ice shelves. However, climate models have largely been unable to reproduce this behavior. Here we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Lettie A. Roach, Kenneth D. Mankoff, Anastasia Romanou, Edward Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Thomas W. N. Haine, Gavin. A. Schmidt
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
Southern Ocean
winds
glacial melt
sea ice
climate change
climate models
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Antarc*
Antarctic
Ice Shelves
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105948
https://doaj.org/article/ca5c7b877dfa403a9fcd82595223bee2
Description
Summary:Abstract Southern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015 have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's grounded ice and ice shelves. However, climate models have largely been unable to reproduce this behavior. Here we examine the contribution of observed wind variability and Antarctic meltwater to Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and Antarctic sea ice. The free‐running, CMIP6‐class GISS‐E2.1‐G climate model can simulate regional cooling and neutral sea ice trends due to internal variability, but they are unlikely. Constraining the model to observed winds and meltwater fluxes from 1990 through 2021 gives SST variability and trends consistent with observations. Meltwater and winds contribute a similar amount to the SST trend, and winds contribute more to the sea ice trend than meltwater. However, while the constrained model captures much of the observed sea ice variability, it only partially captures the post‐2015 sea ice reduction.

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