Expert Assessment of a Ratio of Expenses at Construction of Oil Transport Infrastructure in the Arctic

• Published in: Administrative consulting
• Main Authors: A. G. Tutygin, V. B. Korobov, M. H. Gubaidullin, L. A. Chizhova
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; Russian
• Published: North-West institute of management of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration 2019
• Subjects: arctic zone of the russian federation; transport infrastructure; selection problem; management decision; model; natural and environmental factors; economic factors; Political institutions and public administration (General); JF20-2112; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2018-12-110-117; https://doaj.org/article/c4b26d59a8514a53846ec77dccd0b3de

When assessing the cost of construction and operation of transport infrastructure in the early stages of the investment process, there is a problem in the formalization of some indicators of the factors influencing decision-making. The temporary impossibility to express them in monetary or comparable natural quantities leads to uncertainty in the ratio between these two groups of factors. On the example of one of the discussed objects of oil transport infrastructure in the territory of the Russian Arctic, quantitative estimates of such uncertainties are obtained, the value of which was very weighty and variable depending on the considered alternative. The authors propose an approach based on the vector representation of factors, fuzzy set theory and expert estimates, which allows developing a criterion of the limit value of uncertainty, allowing making management decisions in the problems of choice. The corresponding model giving the possibility of calculation of such criterion is constructed.