Effects of migration rates and vaccination on the spread of yellow fever in Latin American communities

Objective. To assess how relevant the flow of people between communities is, compared to vaccination and type of vector, on the spread and potential outbreaks of yellow fever in a disease-free host community. Methods. Using a SEIRV-SEI model for humans and vectors, we applied numerical simulations t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública
Main Authors: Sabrina Simon, Marcos Amaku, Eduardo Massad
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Spanish
Portuguese
Published: Pan American Health Organization 2023
Subjects:
yellow fever
vaccination
human migration
epidemiological models
public health
vector borne diseases
disease outbreaks
latin america
Medicine
R
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Public aspects of medicine
RA1-1270
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2023.86
https://doaj.org/article/c2dc35842043478b87e0b586c54fa272
Description
Summary:Objective. To assess how relevant the flow of people between communities is, compared to vaccination and type of vector, on the spread and potential outbreaks of yellow fever in a disease-free host community. Methods. Using a SEIRV-SEI model for humans and vectors, we applied numerical simulations to the scenarios: (1) migration from an endemic community to a disease-free host community, comparing the performance of Haemagogus janthinomys and Aedes aegypti as vectors; (2) migration through a transit community located on a migratory route, where the disease is endemic, to a disease-free one; and (3) effects of different vaccination rates in the host community, considering the vaccination of migrants upon arrival. Results. Results show no remarkable differences between scenarios 1 and 2. The type of vector and vaccination coverage in the host community are more relevant for the occurrence of outbreaks than migration rates, with H. janthinomys being more effective than A. aegypti. Conclusions. With vaccination being more determinant for a potential outbreak than migration rates, vaccinating migrants on arrival may be one of the most effective measures against yellow fever. Furthermore, H. janthinomys is a more competent vector than A. aegypti at similar densities, but the presence of A. aegypti is a warning to maintain vaccination above recommended levels.

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