A Global Assessment of Heatwaves Since 1850 in Different Observational and Model Data Sets

Abstract We show that ModE‐Sim, a global ensemble of atmospheric model simulations that uses observed ocean boundary conditions and radiative forcings providing 36 members with daily climate information can be used to in‐depth analyze the known spatial and temporal variability of heatwaves in the No...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Laura Lipfert, Ralf Hand, Stefan Brönnimann
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
heatwaves
historical climatology
extreme events
climate modeling
large ensembles
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106212
https://doaj.org/article/bca74dd724cb4ea180413d87e7e7fffd
Description
Summary:Abstract We show that ModE‐Sim, a global ensemble of atmospheric model simulations that uses observed ocean boundary conditions and radiative forcings providing 36 members with daily climate information can be used to in‐depth analyze the known spatial and temporal variability of heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia during the past 160 years. It can also be used to study actual past extreme events like heatwaves during the El Nino 1877/1878. To analyze past heatwaves we use a novel approach of a transient baseline climatology and compare to different observational data sets. Furthermore, we analyze sea surface temperature anomalies during the most extreme heatwave summers in North America, Europe and Australia and identify the most prominent anomaly patterns over the Subpolar North Atlantic and in the Central Pacific. Using a large ensemble of forced simulations, like ModE‐Sim can consequently contribute to a better understanding of preindustrial heatwaves, their decadal variability and their driving mechanisms.

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