Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre‐industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE)...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth's Future
Main Authors: Andra J. Garner, Robert E. Kopp, Benjamin P. Horton
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2021
Subjects:
tropical cyclones
climate change
storm tracks
U.S. Atlantic coast
21st century
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Ecology
QH540-549.5
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002326
https://doaj.org/article/ab07873a50ae4639a67481f0832e3697
Description
Summary:Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre‐industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high‐emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre‐industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.

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