ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification's contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘ C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth System Dynamics
Main Authors: A. Duffey, R. Mallett, P. J. Irvine, M. Tsamados, J. Stroeve
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2023
Subjects:
Science
Q
Geology
QE1-996.5
Dynamic and structural geology
QE500-639.5
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023
https://doaj.org/article/9833b6825d5c4e889148acfd193eeddf
Description
Summary:The Arctic is warming at almost 4 times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that without Arctic amplification, the world would breach the Paris Agreement's 1.5 and 2 ∘ C limits 5 and 8 years later, respectively. We also find the Arctic to be a disproportionate contributor to uncertainty in the timing of breaches. The outsized influence of Arctic warming on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.

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