Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
Main Authors: Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães, Diego Ricardo Xavier, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, Rafael de Castro Catão
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) 2020
Subjects:
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Social Distance
Time series
Brazil
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020
https://doaj.org/article/9829e6764b564057bfe5e67a1bd5a2f6
Description
Summary:Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

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