Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals
Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression...
Published in: | Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
2020
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0469-2020 https://doaj.org/article/9829e6764b564057bfe5e67a1bd5a2f6 |
Summary: | Abstract INTRODUCTION: Monitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists. METHODS We used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities. RESULTS All capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase. CONCLUSIONS Caution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions. |
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