Potential role of permafrost thaw on increasing Siberian river discharge

Despite the increasing Siberian river discharge, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate forcing/permafrost thawing is poorly quantified. Based on the Budyko framework and superposition principles, we detected and attributed the changes in streamflow regimes for the three great Siberian rivers (Ob,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Ping Wang, Qiwei Huang, Sergey P Pozdniakov, Shiqi Liu, Ning Ma, Tianye Wang, Yongqiang Zhang, Jingjie Yu, Jiaxin Xie, Guobin Fu, Natalia L Frolova, Changming Liu
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2021
Subjects:
streamflow change
climate elasticity
Budyko framework
climate warming
permafrost degradation
Siberian rivers
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
permafrost
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abe326
https://doaj.org/article/8dcddf2a48c44578ad2ac616f1664ff0
Description
Summary:Despite the increasing Siberian river discharge, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate forcing/permafrost thawing is poorly quantified. Based on the Budyko framework and superposition principles, we detected and attributed the changes in streamflow regimes for the three great Siberian rivers (Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) during 1936–2019. Over the past 84 years, streamflow of Ob, Yenisei and Lena has increased by ∼7.7%, 7.4% and 22.0%, respectively. Intensified precipitation induced by a warming climate is a major contributor to increased annual streamflow. However, winter streamflow appears to be particularly sensitive to temperature. Whilst rising temperature can reduce streamflow via evapotranspiration, it can enhance groundwater discharge to rivers due to permafrost thawing. Currently, every 1 °C rise in temperature likely leads to 6.1%–10.5% increase in groundwater discharge, depending on the permafrost condition. For permafrost-developed basins, the contribution to increased streamflow from thawing permafrost will continue to increase in the context of global warming.

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