Impact of sea-ice thickness initialized in April on Arctic sea-ice extent predictability with the MIROC climate model

The impact of April sea-ice thickness (SIT) initialization on the predictability of September sea-ice extent (SIE) is investigated based on a series of perfect model ensemble experiments using the MIROC5.2 climate model. Ensembles with April SIT initialization can accurately predict the September SI...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Annals of Glaciology
Main Authors: Jun Ono, Yoshiki Komuro, Hiroaki Tatebe
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press 2020
Subjects:
Arctic sea ice
ice thickness
initialization
pacific sector
predictability
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
Arctic
Pacific
Annals of Glaciology
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.13
https://doaj.org/article/8486ba2f7d7a4db3accd6ddb725c22bd
Description
Summary:The impact of April sea-ice thickness (SIT) initialization on the predictability of September sea-ice extent (SIE) is investigated based on a series of perfect model ensemble experiments using the MIROC5.2 climate model. Ensembles with April SIT initialization can accurately predict the September SIE for greater lead times than in cases without the initialization – up to 2 years ahead. The persistence of SIT correctly initialized in April contributes to the skilful prediction of SIE in the first September. On the other hand, errors in the initialization of SIT in April cause errors in the predicted sea-ice concentration and thickness in the Pacific sector from July to September and consequently influence the predictive skill with respect to SIE in September. The present study suggests that initialization of the April SIT in the Pacific sector significantly improves the accuracy of the September SIE forecasts by decreasing the errors in sea-ice fields from July to September.

Similar Items