Species Distribution Models and Ecological Suitability Analysis for Potential Tick Vectors of Lyme Disease in Mexico

• Published in: Journal of Tropical Medicine
• Main Authors: Patricia Illoldi-Rangel, Chissa-Louise Rivaldi, Blake Sissel, Rebecca Trout Fryxell, Guadalupe Gordillo-Pérez, Angel Rodríguez-Moreno, Phillip Williamson, Griselda Montiel-Parra, Víctor Sánchez-Cordero, Sahotra Sarkar
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Hindawi Limited 2012
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/959101; https://doaj.org/article/837752d7e9aa467b95e3c6d270150a22

Species distribution models were constructed for ten Ixodes species and Amblyomma cajennense for a region including Mexico and Texas. The model was based on a maximum entropy algorithm that used environmental layers to predict the relative probability of presence for each taxon. For Mexico, species geographic ranges were predicted by restricting the models to cells which have a higher probability than the lowest probability of the cells in which a presence record was located. There was spatial nonconcordance between the distributions of Amblyomma cajennense and the Ixodes group with the former restricted to lowlands and mainly the eastern coast of Mexico and the latter to montane regions with lower temperature. The risk of Lyme disease is, therefore, mainly present in the highlands where some Ixodes species are known vectors; if Amblyomma cajennense turns out to be a competent vector, the area of risk also extends to the lowlands and the east coast.