Future Arctic Climate Change in CMIP6 Strikingly Intensified by NEMO‐Family Climate Models

Abstract Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Rongrong Pan, Qi Shu, Qiang Wang, Shizhu Wang, Zhenya Song, Yan He, Fangli Qiao
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
Arctic Ocean
Arctic sea ice
climate change
climate model
climate projection
ocean model
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Arctic
Climate change
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102077
https://doaj.org/article/832f078191f140a08be806f07629b6fe
Description
Summary:Abstract Climate change in the Arctic has substantial impacts on human life and ecosystems both within and beyond the Arctic. Our analysis of CMIP6 simulations shows that some climate models project much larger Arctic climate change than other models, including changes in sea ice, ocean mixed layer, air‐sea heat flux, and surface air temperature in wintertime. In particular, dramatic enhancement of Arctic Ocean convection down to a few hundred meters is projected in these models but not in others. Interestingly, these models employ the same ocean model family (NEMO) while the choice of models for the atmosphere and sea ice varies. The magnitude of Arctic climate change is proportional to the strength of the increase in poleward ocean heat transport, which is considerably higher in this group of models. Establishing the plausibility of this group of models with high Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing is imperative given the implied ramifications.

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