Incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil, using a Bayesian time series model

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The monthly incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, was assessed. METHODS: A statistical model based on the discrete double Poisson distribution was proposed, including pairs of sine and cosine functions of time to account for seasonality...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
Main Authors: Davi Casale Aragon, José André Mota de Queiroz, Edson Zangiacomi Martinez
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
Subjects:
Snakes
Time series
Poisonous animals
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0138-2016
https://doaj.org/article/82c9dd51ddb54949a211e14a2b5e5f0f
Description
Summary:Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The monthly incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, was assessed. METHODS: A statistical model based on the discrete double Poisson distribution was proposed, including pairs of sine and cosine functions of time to account for seasonality and autoregressive terms. RESULTS: The analysis indicated a slight increase in the incidence of snakebites. The inclusion of two pairs of trigonometric functions seemed to be relevant in the model adjustment, given the seasonal pattern of the data. CONCLUSIONS: The snakebites occurred predominantly during the warm season, from November to April.

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