Towards Modelling Future Trends of Quebec’s Boreal Birds’ Species Distribution under Climate Change

Adaptation to climate change requires prediction of its impacts, especially on ecosystems. In this work we simulated the change in bird species richness in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, under climate change scenarios. To do so, we first analyzed which geographical and bioclimatic variables we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
Main Authors: Jonathan Gaudreau, Liliana Perez, Saeed Harati
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2018
Subjects:
climate change
boreal Quebec
biogeography
species richness
bioclimatic modelling
redundancy analysis (RDA)
ecological change
random forest (RF)
Geography (General)
G1-922
Canada
Ungava Bay
James Bay
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7090335
https://doaj.org/article/7944e26111e74eb09b41edbd6441f656
Description
Summary:Adaptation to climate change requires prediction of its impacts, especially on ecosystems. In this work we simulated the change in bird species richness in the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada, under climate change scenarios. To do so, we first analyzed which geographical and bioclimatic variables were the strongest predictors for the spatial distribution of the current resident bird species. Based on canonical redundancy analysis and analysis of variance, we found that annual temperature range, average temperature of the cold season, seasonality of precipitation, precipitation in the wettest season, elevation, and local percentage of wet area had the strongest influence on the species’ distributions. We used these variables with Random Forests, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Maximum Entropy models to explain spatial variations in species abundance. Future species distributions were calculated by replacing present climatic variables with projections under different climate change pathways. Subsequently, maps of species richness change were produced. The results showed a northward expansion of areas of highest species richness towards the center of the province. Species are also likely to appear near James Bay and Ungava Bay, where rapid climate change is expected.

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