Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus.

• Published in: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
• Main Authors: Yidan Li, Bernard Cazelles, Guoqing Yang, Marko Laine, Zheng X Y Huang, Jun Cai, Hua Tan, Nils Chr Stenseth, Huaiyu Tian
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2019
• Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic; Norway
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007757; https://doaj.org/article/73957d5e2e744d7b957164ad6e42f1e0

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality.