Causal Links Between Sea‐Ice Variability in the Barents‐Kara Seas and Oceanic and Atmospheric Drivers

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Jakob Dörr, Marius Årthun, David Docquier, Camille Li, Tor Eldevik
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley 2024
• Subjects: sea ice; internal variability; causal analysis; ocean heat transport; atmospheric circulation; Arctic; Geophysics. Cosmic physics; QC801-809; Barents Sea; Nordic Seas; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108195; https://doaj.org/article/6fc4bb5ab28444f0a8e198ebfef13b50

Abstract The sea‐ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been found to influence sea‐ice variability, but their relative strength and regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang‐Kleeman information flow method to quantify the causal influence of oceanic and atmospheric drivers on the annual sea‐ice cover in the BKS in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble and reanalysis. We find that atmospheric drivers dominate in the northern part, ocean heat transport dominates in the central and northeastern part, and local sea‐surface temperature dominates in the southern part. Furthermore, the large‐scale atmospheric circulation over the Nordic Seas drives ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea, which then influences sea ice. Under future sea‐ice retreat, the atmospheric drivers are expected to become more important.