Causal Links Between Sea‐Ice Variability in the Barents‐Kara Seas and Oceanic and Atmospheric Drivers

Abstract The sea‐ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been found to influence sea‐ice variability, but their relative strength and regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang‐Kleeman in...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Jakob Dörr, Marius Årthun, David Docquier, Camille Li, Tor Eldevik
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024
Subjects:
sea ice
internal variability
causal analysis
ocean heat transport
atmospheric circulation
Arctic
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Barents Sea
Nordic Seas
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108195
https://doaj.org/article/6fc4bb5ab28444f0a8e198ebfef13b50
Description
Summary:Abstract The sea‐ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been found to influence sea‐ice variability, but their relative strength and regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang‐Kleeman information flow method to quantify the causal influence of oceanic and atmospheric drivers on the annual sea‐ice cover in the BKS in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble and reanalysis. We find that atmospheric drivers dominate in the northern part, ocean heat transport dominates in the central and northeastern part, and local sea‐surface temperature dominates in the southern part. Furthermore, the large‐scale atmospheric circulation over the Nordic Seas drives ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea, which then influences sea ice. Under future sea‐ice retreat, the atmospheric drivers are expected to become more important.

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