Influence of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in the municipality of Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil

• Published in: Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
• Main Author: Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT)
• Subjects: Odds ratio; Wind direction; Dew point temperature; Rainfall; Air temperature; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0432-2016; https://doaj.org/article/6f3e105fb9bc4702b0a4b5b74d076c06

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Meteorological influences along with the lack of basic sanitation has contributed to disease outbreaks, resulting in large socio-economic losses, especially in terms of dengue. This study aimed to evaluate the meteorological influences on the monthly incidence of dengue in Arapiraca-AL, Brazil during 2008-2015. METHODS: We used generalized linear models constructed via logistic regression to assess the association between the monthly incidence of dengue (MID) of and 8 meteorological variables [rainfall (R), air temperature (AT), dew point temperature (DPT), relative humidity (RH), pressure surface, wind speed (WS), wind direction (WD), and gust], based on data obtained from DATASUS and meteorological station databases, respectively. The dengue-1 model included R, AT, DPT, and RH and the dengue-2 model included AT, DPT, RH, WS, and WD. A MID >100 (classified as moderate incidence) indicated an abnormal month. RESULTS: Based on the dengue-1 model, variables with the highest odds ratio included R-lag1, DPT-lag1, and AT-lag1 with a 10.1, 18.3, and 26.7 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively. Based on the dengue-2 model, variables with the highest odds ratio were AT-lag1 and RH-lag0 indicating an 8.9 and 18.1 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: AT, DPT, R, RH and WS influenced the occurrence of a moderate MID.