A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: Lucy C Cradden, Frank McDermott
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: IOP Publishing 2018
• Subjects: wind energy; electricity demand; weather regimes; blocking patterns; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; TD1-1066; Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Science; Q; Physics; QC1-999; North Atlantic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabd40; https://doaj.org/article/5b6b15cd86b94670b5d8dbc9811052e5

Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.