Weakening of decadal variation of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall under global warming

Abstract Over the past century, Northern Hemisphere (NH) land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) experienced significant decadal to multidecadal variations, mainly driven by an east–west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast over the Pacific (EWPC) and an interhemispheric North Atlantic–South Indian Ocean SS...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Main Authors: Yeyan Jiang, Juan Li, Bin Wang, Youngmin Yang, Zhiwei Zhu
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023
Subjects:
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Meteorology. Climatology
QC851-999
Indian
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00441-z
https://doaj.org/article/5a08b249ace54189a50708195917f194
Description
Summary:Abstract Over the past century, Northern Hemisphere (NH) land monsoon rainfall (NHLMR) experienced significant decadal to multidecadal variations, mainly driven by an east–west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast over the Pacific (EWPC) and an interhemispheric North Atlantic–South Indian Ocean SST dipole (NAID). However, how the NHLMR’s decadal variation would vary and whether the oceanic forcing could continue to drive it in a warming world remain unexplored. Here, by analyzing 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models’ historical simulations and future projections, we show that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR will retain its nearly-uniform spatial pattern and representation of the NHLMR’s intensity. In the future, the significant periodicities of decadal NHLMR are shortened as emissions levels increase. The intensity of decadal NHLMR variation will experience a comprehensive decline under various emission scenarios, which may link to the weakened intensity of NAID and EWPC. Although the relationship between EWPC and decadal NHLMR is slightly weakened in the future, EWPC will remain a primary driver while NAID is no longer. The significant historical correlation between NAID and NHLMR is mainly attributed to the influence of increased anthropogenic aerosols emission. However, the NAID-NHLMR linkage would no longer exist owing to the decline of anthropogenic aerosol emission in the future.

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