Sensitivity of Anopheles gambiae population dynamics to meteo-hydrological variability: a mechanistic approach
Abstract Background Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by mete...
| Published in: | Malaria Journal |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-10-294 https://doaj.org/article/5548c2285f9a4dd48082f8100a674a33 |
| Summary: | Abstract Background Mechanistic models play an important role in many biological disciplines, and they can effectively contribute to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of mosquito populations, in the light of the increasing knowledge of the crucial driving role on vector dynamics played by meteo-climatic features as well as other physical-biological characteristics of the landscape. Methods In malaria eco-epidemiology landscape components (atmosphere, water bodies, land use) interact with the epidemiological system (interacting populations of vector, human, and parasite). In the background of the eco-epidemiological approach, a mosquito population model is here proposed to evaluate the sensitivity of An. gambiae s.s. population to some peculiar thermal-pluviometric scenarios. The scenarios are obtained perturbing meteorological time series data referred to four Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Nyabondo, Kibwesi, and Malindi) representing four different eco-epidemiological settings. Results Simulations highlight a strong dependence of mosquito population abundance on temperature variation with well-defined site-specific patterns. The upper extreme of thermal perturbation interval (+ 3°C) gives rise to an increase in adult population abundance at Nairobi (+111%) and Nyabondo (+61%), and a decrease at Kibwezi (-2%) and Malindi (-36%). At the lower extreme perturbation (-3°C) is observed a reduction in both immature and adult mosquito population in three sites (Nairobi -74%, Nyabondo -66%, Kibwezi -39%), and an increase in Malindi (+11%). A coherent non-linear pattern of population variation emerges. The maximum rate of variation is +30% population abundance for +1°C of temperature change, but also almost null and negative values are obtained. Mosquitoes are less sensitive to rainfall and both adults and immature populations display a positive quasi-linear response pattern to rainfall variation. Conclusions The non-linear temperature-dependent response is in agreement with the non-linear patterns of temperature-response ... |
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