Predicting the power grid frequency of European islands

Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. The...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Physics: Complexity
Main Authors: Thorbjørn Lund Onsaker, Heidi S Nygård, Damiá Gomila, Pere Colet, Ralf Mikut, Richard Jumar, Heiko Maass, Uwe Kühnapfel, Veit Hagenmeyer, Benjamin Schäfer
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2023
Subjects:
Machine learning
forecasting
power grid
time series analysis
Europe
frequency synchronisation
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
Faroe Islands
Iceland
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/acbd7f
https://doaj.org/article/52c125afd1d046389873b72257af7070
Description
Summary:Modelling, forecasting and overall understanding of the dynamics of the power grid and its frequency are essential for the safe operation of existing and future power grids. Much previous research was focused on large continental areas, while small systems, such as islands are less well-studied. These natural island systems are ideal testing environments for microgrid proposals and artificially islanded grid operation. In the present paper, we utilise measurements of the power grid frequency obtained in European islands: the Faroe Islands, Ireland, the Balearic Islands and Iceland and investigate how their frequency can be predicted, compared to the Nordic power system, acting as a reference. The Balearic Islands are found to be particularly deterministic and easy to predict in contrast to hard-to-predict Iceland. Furthermore, we show that typically 2–4 weeks of data are needed to improve prediction performance beyond simple benchmarks.

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