A weather-driven model of malaria transmission
Abstract Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising b...
| Published in: | Malaria Journal |
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| Main Authors: | , |
| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
BMC
2004
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-3-32 https://doaj.org/article/4c1b1079441942d49e1c70bb7c277fca |
| Summary: | Abstract Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Results Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. Conclusion A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts. |
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