Subseasonal Predictions of Polar Low Activity Using a Hybrid Statistical‐Dynamical Approach

Abstract The subseasonal prediction of polar low (PL) activity is explored using a hybrid statistical‐dynamical approach. A previously developed PL genesis potential index is paired with ECMWF reforecasts and forecasts to predict regional statistics of PL activity across the sub‐Arctic. Regional PL...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Kevin Boyd, Zhuo Wang, John Walsh, Patrick Stoll
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
polar lows
polar low genesis potential index
subseasonal prediction and predictability
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Bering Sea
Labrador Sea
Nordic Seas
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102145
https://doaj.org/article/4b51ba3c3d024223b0192ae1cc886ed1
Description
Summary:Abstract The subseasonal prediction of polar low (PL) activity is explored using a hybrid statistical‐dynamical approach. A previously developed PL genesis potential index is paired with ECMWF reforecasts and forecasts to predict regional statistics of PL activity across the sub‐Arctic. Regional PL activity is skillfully predicted in all regions at forecast ranges of up to a month. Additionally, the predictability limit of this hybrid framework (estimated using reanalysis data) is found to be highest over the Nordic Seas, Irminger Sea, Labrador Sea, and Bering Sea. We find that climate modes can strongly influence subseasonal prediction skill and are a potential source of predictability. Overall, our results highlight a promising prospect for the subseasonal prediction of PL activity.

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