Determining endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iranian Fars province by retrospectively detected clusters and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis

• Published in: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine
• Main Authors: Marjan Zare, Abbas Rezaianzadeh, Hamidreza Tabatabaee, Hossain Faramarzi, Mohsen Aliakbarpour, Mostafa Ebrahimi
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wolters Kluwer Medknow Publications 2019
• Subjects: cutaneous leishmaniasis; retrospective clusters; receiver operating characteristic curve; endemic values; fars province; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Biology (General); QH301-705.5; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.4103/2221-1691.267636; https://doaj.org/article/411f7a4f976745deafd23ee685963b76

Objective: To determine the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis in different cities of Fars province, Iran. Methods: Totally, 29 201 cases registered from 2010 to 2015 in Iranian Fars province were selected, and the endemic values of cutaneous leishmaniasis were determined by retrospective clusters derived from spatiotemporal permutation modeling on a time-series design. The accuracy of the values was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. SPSS version 22, ArcGIS, and ITSM 2002 software tools were used for analysis. Results: Nine statistically significant retrospective clusters (P<0.05) resulted in finding seven significant and accurate endemic values (P<0.1). These valid endemic scores were generalized to the other 18 cities based on 6 different climates in the province. Conclusions: Retrospectively detected clusters with the help of ROC curve analysis could help determine cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic values which are essential for future prediction and prevention policies in the area.