Machine Learning Incorporated With Causal Analysis for Short-Term Prediction of Sea Ice

Accurate and fast prediction of sea ice conditions is the foundation of safety guarantee for Arctic navigation. Aiming at the imperious demand of short-term prediction for sea ice, we develop a new data-driven prediction technique for the sea ice concentration (SIC) combined with causal analysis. Th...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Frontiers in Marine Science
Main Authors: Ming Li, Ren Zhang, Kefeng Liu
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Subjects:
Arctic sea ice
machine learning
causal analysis
prediction
short-term variation
Science
Q
General. Including nature conservation
geographical distribution
QH1-199.5
Arctic
Sea ice
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.649378
https://doaj.org/article/3ff3f8cd65b44c039dd4de82166a9dd0
Description
Summary:Accurate and fast prediction of sea ice conditions is the foundation of safety guarantee for Arctic navigation. Aiming at the imperious demand of short-term prediction for sea ice, we develop a new data-driven prediction technique for the sea ice concentration (SIC) combined with causal analysis. Through the causal analysis based on kernel Granger causality (KGC) test, key environmental factors affecting SIC are selected. Then multiple popular machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely self-adaptive differential extreme learning machine (SaD-ELM), classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF) and support vector regression (SVR), are employed to predict daily SIC, respectively. The experimental results in the Barents-Kara (B-K) sea show: (1) compared with correlation analysis, the input variables of ML models screened out by causal analysis achieve better prediction; (2) when lead time is short (<3 d), the four ML algorithms are all suitable for short-term prediction of daily SIC, while RF and SaD-ELM have better prediction performance with long lead time (>3 d); (3) RF has the best prediction accuracy and generalization ability but hugely time consuming, while SaD-ELM achieves more favorable performance when taking computational complexity into consideration. In summary, ML is applicable to short-term prediction of daily SIC, which develops a new way of sea ice prediction and provides technical support for Arctic navigation.

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