Warmer winters are reducing potential ice roads and port accessibility in the Pan-Arctic

Transportation in the Pan-Arctic winter is highly dependent on ice roads, which are affected by surface air temperatures and snow cover. In the context of polar increased warming, there is an urgent need to quantify the uncertainties of ice roads and their contribution to terrestrial transport. We e...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Yuanbiao Dong, Pengfeng Xiao, Xueliang Zhang, Youlv Wu, Huadong Wang, Wenbo Luan
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2022
Subjects:
potential ice roads
warmer winters
Pan-Arctic
port accessibility
terrestrial transport
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
Arctic
Nunavut
Alaska
Siberia
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac97ae
https://doaj.org/article/2d8a6f468c4c4346807d897c23284ec4
Description
Summary:Transportation in the Pan-Arctic winter is highly dependent on ice roads, which are affected by surface air temperatures and snow cover. In the context of polar increased warming, there is an urgent need to quantify the uncertainties of ice roads and their contribution to terrestrial transport. We evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of potential ice road changes by calculating four indicators: potential ice road area (PIRA), potential ice road days (PIRDs), potential ice road onset date (PIROD), and potential ice road end date (PIRED) from October to May, 1979–2017. Taking port accessibility as an example, we constructed a port accessibility model to quantify the contribution of potential ice roads to terrestrial transport. All four indicators showed significant ( p < 0.05) reductions in potential ice roads. PIRA experienced the largest share of losses in May (∼25%) and the sharpest reductions in April (2.77 × 10 ^4 km ^2 yr ^−1 ). PIRDs were shortened by an average of 0.41 d yr ^−1 , and delayed PIROD (0.28 d yr ^−1 on average) was more severe than advanced PIRED (0.21 d yr ^−1 on average). A stability analysis showed that potential ice roads were changing from suitable to unsuitable during November to May. Between December and April, potential ice roads can increase port accessibility by more than 24 h in Canadian Arctic and Siberia and by more than 9 h in Alaska. However, the contribution of potential ice roads has reduced over the past decades, especially in Nunavut. The results provide insights into changes in potential ice roads in the Pan-Arctic and suggest that remote land accessibility has decreased significantly with warmer winters.

Similar Items