Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios

With ongoing anthropogenic CO _2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO _2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a rea...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental Research Letters
Main Authors: Dennis Höning, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2024
Subjects:
Greenland ice sheet
sea level rise
climate change
tipping point
anthropogenic carbon emissions
Earth system
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
TD1-1066
Environmental sciences
GE1-350
Science
Q
Physics
QC1-999
Greenland
Ice Sheet
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2129
https://doaj.org/article/26bae7eb046c4dc1ac1a4af85dc0bf5c
Description
Summary:With ongoing anthropogenic CO _2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO _2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a realization of this concept could lead to a regrowth of the GIS once it has partly melted. Using the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, emission pulses between 0 and 4000 GtC are released into the atmosphere, and after 1 kyr, 2 kyr, and 5 kyr, the atmospheric CO _2 concentration is reduced back to its pre-industrial value. We find that independent of a specific trajectory, once the southern part of the GIS has partly melted with a total mass loss of more than 0.4 m sea level equivalent, regrowth is inhibited. Uncertainties preclude determination of precise thresholds, but model results indicate that cumulative industrial-era emissions approaching 1000–1500 GtC and beyond increasingly risk irreversible mass loss of the GIS. Once this threshold is passed, artificial atmospheric carbon removal would need to be utilised within the next centuries at massive scale. Beyond that, artificial atmospheric carbon removal has limited abilities to avoid long-term mass loss of the GIS. In conclusion, keeping cumulative anthropogenic emissions below 1000–1500 GtC is the only safe way to avoid irreversible mass loss of the GIS.

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