The role of Arctic sea ice loss in the interdecadal trends of the East Asian summer monsoon in a warming climate

• Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• Main Authors: Xiaoqi Zhang, Bian He, Qing Bao, Yimin Liu, Guoxiong Wu, Anmin Duan, Wenting Hu, Chen Sheng, Jian Rao
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Portfolio 2024
• Subjects: Environmental sciences; GE1-350; Meteorology. Climatology; QC851-999; Global warming; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00717-y; https://doaj.org/article/2571e4a95d3b43a090054ab671b7bd37

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon precipitation has exhibited a well-known “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern in recent decades. The increase in aerosols and warming oceans are recognized as two important forcings that control of the precipitation trends over East Asian land. However, in this study, by using large ensemble simulations from the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), the influence of Arctic amplification, serving as the prominent feature of global warming, is very important in modulating the East Asian summer precipitation pattern, which is comparable to the influence of sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the observed “southern China flood and northern China drought” pattern only exists in July and August, whereas a triple pattern with the precipitation positive anomaly center over Middle China occurs in June. These patterns are closely connected with the regional differences in Arctic sea ice loss from June to July, affected through both the Rossby waves propagating in a weaker westerly jet and the decrease in the large-scale meridional thermal contrast in a warming climate.