Covid-19 growth rate analysis: application of a low-complexity tool for understanding and comparing epidemic curves

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves. The objective of this study was to quantify the acceleration of daily confirmed cases and death curves using the polynomial interpolation method. METHODS: Covid-19 epidemic c...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical
Main Authors: Airandes de Sousa Pinto, Edval Gomes dos Santos Júnior, Carlos Alberto Rodrigues, Paulo Cesar Mendes Nunes, Livia Almeida da Cruz, Matheus Gomes Reis Costa, Manoel Otávio da Costa Rocha
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical (SBMT) 2020
Subjects:
Covid-19
SARS-CoV-2
Polynomial interpolation
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine
RC955-962
Arctic
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1590/0037-8682-0331-2020
https://doaj.org/article/157880f5cca1457484bfe455a6e593c4
Description
Summary:Abstract INTRODUCTION: The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves. The objective of this study was to quantify the acceleration of daily confirmed cases and death curves using the polynomial interpolation method. METHODS: Covid-19 epidemic curves from Brazil, Germany, the United States, and Russia were obtained. We calculated the instantaneous acceleration of the curve using the first derivative of the representative polynomial. RESULTS: The acceleration for all curves was obtained. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating acceleration into an analysis of the Covid-19 time series may enable a better understanding of the epidemiological situation.

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