Limited Impact of Thwaites Ice Shelf on Future Ice Loss From Antarctica

Abstract Thwaites Ice Shelf (TWIS), the floating extension of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is changing rapidly and may completely disintegrate in the near future. Any buttressing that the ice shelf provides to the upstream grounded Thwaites glacier will then be lost. Previously, it has been ar...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: G. H. Gudmundsson, J. M. Barnes, D. N. Goldberg, M. Morlighem
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
ice sheets
cryosphere
Thwaites glacier
West Antarctica
numerical modeling
global warming
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Antarc*
Antarctica
Ice Shelf
Thwaites Glacier
Thwaites Ice Shelf
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102880
https://doaj.org/article/09e40a52b72f40cf8091d7d01977da72
Description
Summary:Abstract Thwaites Ice Shelf (TWIS), the floating extension of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is changing rapidly and may completely disintegrate in the near future. Any buttressing that the ice shelf provides to the upstream grounded Thwaites glacier will then be lost. Previously, it has been argued that this could lead to onset of dynamical instability and the rapid demise of the entire glacier. Here we provide the first systematic quantitative assessment of how strongly the upstream ice is buttressed by TWIS and how its collapse affects future projections. By modeling the stresses acting along the current grounding line, we show that they deviate insignificantly from the stresses after ice shelf collapse. Using three ice‐flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years.

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